PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
beastcoastloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 21 game
Pucksignature
bzm · 19 games
Razorsignature
ATF · 16 games
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 16 games
Enigmasignature
Taiga · 15 games
Iooften banned
Ceb · 14 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 14 games
Viperoften banned
ATF · 14 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
696 picks · 505 bans
Puck
502 picks · 981 bans
Dawnbreaker
409 picks · 524 bans
Snapfire
387 picks · 200 bans
Marci
380 picks · 692 bans
Winter Wyvern
325 picks · 312 bans
Zeus
295 picks · 315 bans
Monkey King
290 picks · 619 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 53%
Hero pool strength59% OG
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total63% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:21
OG 63%beastcoast 37%
The model gave 63% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 36:13.
Game 2prediction missed29:37
OG 63%beastcoast 37%
The model gave 63% on OG — the game was taken by beastcoast in 43:17.
Game 3prediction correct59:25
OG 63%beastcoast 37%
The model gave 63% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 44:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 63%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3