DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:1
beastcoastloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Rubick
Taiga · 32 games
Disruptor
Chuvash · 17 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 17 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Taiga · 16 games
Tinyoften banned
bzm · 15 games
Doomoften banned
DM · 14 games
Slarkoften banned
Yuragi · 14 games
Dark Willowsignature
Taiga · 13 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
741 picks · 628 bans
Disruptor
602 picks · 529 bans
Beastmaster
523 picks · 1291 bans
Doom
522 picks · 1019 bans
Ember Spirit
454 picks · 1154 bans
Pangolier
449 picks · 928 bans
Mirana
428 picks · 224 bans
Techies
425 picks · 432 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 48%
Hero pool strength54% OG
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total51% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:37
OG 51%beastcoast 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by beastcoast in 51:59.
Game 2prediction correct37:25
OG 51%beastcoast 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 37:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2