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ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:1
BOOM Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 17 games
47%
Bane
Banesignature
Misha · 13 games
62%
Razor
Razorsignature
Yuragi · 11 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Taiga · 11 games
55%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
bzm · 10 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Misha · 10 games
60%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
bzm · 10 games
80%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 10 games
70%

BOOM Esports

Weaver
Weaversignature
Tims · 17 games
94%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 16 games
88%
Bane
Banesignature
Skem · 15 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Skem · 14 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Fbz · 14 games
79%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 13 games
77%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Tims · 13 games
92%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Fbz · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
456 picks · 624 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
455 picks · 280 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
424 picks · 483 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
393 picks · 518 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
363 picks · 781 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 540 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
336 picks · 516 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
323 picks · 486 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 73%
Hero pool strength62% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:33
OG 42%BOOM Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 44:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaYuragi
50% · 223 games53% · 272 games
Templar AssassinYopaj
Templar Assassin
Razor
RazorATF
47% · 214 games47% · 485 games
MarsFbz
Mars
Sand King
Sand Kingbzm
53% · 254 games51% · 19 games
RikiJaCkky
Riki
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinTaiga
47% · 214 games54% · 145 games
Keeper of the LightTims
Keeper of the Light
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernCeb
46% · 136 games51% · 120 games
Treant ProtectorSkem
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed50:18
OG 44%BOOM Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by OG in 36:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreYuragi
53% · 56 games39% · 90 games
Phantom AssassinJaCkky
Phantom Assassin
Razor
RazorATF
50% · 253 games48% · 206 games
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
52% · 383 games53% · 315 games
MarsFbz
Mars
Jakiro
JakiroCeb
42% · 103 games52% · 90 games
Shadow ShamanTims
Shadow Shaman
Clockwerk
ClockwerkTaiga
52% · 211 games57% · 305 games
BaneSkem
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 61%
Accuracy by game1 of 2