Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Brameloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Saksa · 6 games
Alchemistoften banned
Ceb · 5 games
Earth Spirit
Saksa · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MidOne · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ceb · 5 games
Rubick
Saksa · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Topson · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Saksa · 4 games
Brame
Earth Spirit
CTOMAHEH1 · 15 games
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 13 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 12 games
Dark Seersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
Clockwerksignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 9 games
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 8 games
Juggernautsignature
Focus · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
433 picks · 945 bans
Void Spirit
407 picks · 581 bans
Death Prophet
360 picks · 666 bans
Mars
333 picks · 586 bans
Earth Spirit
304 picks · 273 bans
Tusk
267 picks · 178 bans
Phoenix
260 picks · 376 bans
Grimstroke
252 picks · 217 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:22
OG 36%Brame 64%
The model gave 64% on Brame — the game was taken by OG in 38:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernautana
UrsaFocus
RikiTopson
PugnaW1sh-
MagnusCeb
TidehunterSkyLark
Dark WillowSaksa
Earth SpiritCTOMAHEH1
Brewmastern0tail
Keeper of the LightSsaSpartan
Game 2prediction missed40:27
OG 37%Brame 63%
The model gave 63% on Brame — the game was taken by OG in 39:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancerana
AlchemistFocus
Centaur WarrunnerCeb
DoomSkyLark
PugnaTopson
Ember SpiritW1sh-
Earth SpiritSaksa
Shadow ShamanCTOMAHEH1
Abaddonn0tail
OracleSsaSpartan
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 75%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2