Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
OGwin 1:0series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Brameloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Earth Spiritsignature
Saksa · 8 games
Alchemistoften banned
Ceb · 7 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Saksa · 6 games
Puckoften banned
Topson · 6 games
Rikisignature
Topson · 6 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Ceb · 5 games
Dark Willow
Saksa · 5 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
n0tail · 5 games
Brame
Earth Spiritoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 18 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 16 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 16 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
W1sh- · 13 games
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 12 games
Juggernautoften banned
Focus · 11 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
SsaSpartan · 11 games
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
400 picks · 1012 bans
Lion
376 picks · 194 bans
Mars
376 picks · 605 bans
Grimstroke
366 picks · 367 bans
Void Spirit
315 picks · 499 bans
Death Prophet
308 picks · 681 bans
Tusk
303 picks · 226 bans
Snapfire
281 picks · 156 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 51%
Hero pool strength53% OG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:26
OG 40%Brame 60%
The model gave 60% on Brame — the game was taken by OG in 39:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenMadara
LifestealerFocus
VenomancerCeb
TinyW1sh-
ZeusTopson
EnchantressCTOMAHEH1
ClockwerkSaksa
MagnusSkyLark
Ancient Apparitionn0tail
GrimstrokeSsaSpartan
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 65%
Series resultOG 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1