PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Dandelionswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Hoodwinkoften banned
Ari · 39 games
Rubick
Ari · 33 games
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 31 game
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 25 games
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 25 games
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 22 games
Pangolieroften banned
bzm · 22 games
Phoenixoften banned
Ceb · 22 games
Dandelions
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
417 picks · 353 bans
Hoodwink
410 picks · 451 bans
Weaver
388 picks · 829 bans
Tiny
379 picks · 870 bans
Phoenix
360 picks · 749 bans
Pangolier
347 picks · 518 bans
Clockwerk
335 picks · 502 bans
Ember Spirit
301 picks · 575 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:11
OG 87%Dandelions 13%
The model gave 87% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 22:47.
Game 2prediction missed22:36
OG 87%Dandelions 13%
The model gave 87% on OG — the game was taken by Dandelions in 44:48.
Game 3prediction missed20:27
OG 87%Dandelions 13%
The model gave 87% on OG — the game was taken by Dandelions in 41:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 87%
Series resultDandelions 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3