OG vs elegia — prediction PWS2ЗК · Dota 2

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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

OGwin 2:1

series probability

94%6%

probability at match start · final 2:1

elegialoss 1:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwinkoften banned

Ari · 37 games

54%

Rubick

Ari · 33 games

52%

Marsoften banned

Wisper · 31 game

58%

Morphlingoften banned

Timado · 25 games

56%

Tinyoften banned

Ari · 25 games

48%

Pangolieroften banned

bzm · 22 games

59%

Phoenixoften banned

Ceb · 22 games

59%

Batridersignature

Ceb · 21 game

62%

elegia

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

406 picks · 341 bans

51%

Hoodwink

404 picks · 446 bans

53%

Weaver

384 picks · 824 bans

54%

Tiny

377 picks · 871 bans

54%

Phoenix

357 picks · 735 bans

50%

Pangolier

337 picks · 513 bans

47%

Clockwerk

327 picks · 496 bans

56%

Ember Spirit

294 picks · 546 bans

50%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%

Hero pool strength53% OG

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total94% OG

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct28:14

OG 81%elegia 19%

The model gave 81% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 25:00.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo