Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Entityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Marsoften banned
ATF · 16 games
Bane
Misha · 12 games
Razorsignature
Yuragi · 11 games
Snapfire
Taiga · 11 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Misha · 10 games
Templar Assassinsignature
bzm · 10 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 9 games
Kunkkaoften banned
bzm · 9 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
457 picks · 263 bans
Mars
405 picks · 557 bans
Tiny
334 picks · 383 bans
Death Prophet
333 picks · 645 bans
Weaver
291 picks · 359 bans
Ember Spirit
289 picks · 423 bans
Sand King
281 picks · 352 bans
Templar Assassin
265 picks · 561 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 71%
Hero pool strength54% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:9
OG 42%Entity 58%
The model gave 58% on Entity — the game was taken by OG in 32:37.
Game 2prediction missed31:20
OG 42%Entity 58%
The model gave 58% on Entity — the game was taken by OG in 37:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 58%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2