DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Entityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Rubick
Taiga · 32 games
Disruptor
Chuvash · 18 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 18 games
Doomoften banned
DM · 16 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Taiga · 16 games
Tinyoften banned
bzm · 15 games
Batrideroften banned
DM · 14 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Taiga · 14 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
756 picks · 627 bans
Disruptor
607 picks · 533 bans
Doom
537 picks · 1054 bans
Beastmaster
536 picks · 1319 bans
Ember Spirit
462 picks · 1177 bans
Pangolier
458 picks · 950 bans
Techies
455 picks · 466 bans
Mirana
438 picks · 226 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 29%
Hero pool strength52% OG
Head-to-head7 – 1
Model total65% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:35
OG 65%Entity 35%
The model gave 65% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 57:03.
Game 2prediction correct32:18
OG 65%Entity 35%
The model gave 65% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 35:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 65%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2