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The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Puck
Pucksignature
bzm · 24 games
67%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 24 games
71%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 22 games
73%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Ceb · 18 games
61%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 16 games
69%
Viper
Vipersignature
ATF · 16 games
69%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 15 games
40%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Taiga · 14 games
57%

Gaimin Gladiators

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 23 games
65%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
tOfu · 19 games
42%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 18 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 18 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
BOOM · 17 games
59%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
dyrachyo · 16 games
69%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
BOOM · 15 games
93%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
501 picks · 389 bans
52%
Marci
Marci
432 picks · 661 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
298 picks · 461 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
289 picks · 696 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
282 picks · 396 bans
47%
Undying
Undying
259 picks · 460 bans
56%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
254 picks · 332 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
248 picks · 842 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% OG
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total73% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:16
OG 64%Gaimin Gladiators 36%
The model gave 64% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 35:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkYuragi
58% · 41 game48% · 82 games
Morphlingdyrachyo
Morphling
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
53% · 97 games52% · 153 games
Ember SpiritBOOM
Ember Spirit
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
48% · 164 games41% · 32 games
BrewmasterAce
Brewmaster
Elder Titan
Elder TitanTaiga
39% · 33 games50% · 119 games
DawnbreakerSeleri
Dawnbreaker
Jakiro
JakiroMisha
53% · 77 games55% · 26 games
SilencertOfu
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct27:23
OG 63%Gaimin Gladiators 37%
The model gave 63% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 39:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenYuragi
48% · 33 games50% · 84 games
LeshracBOOM
Leshrac
Razor
RazorATF
45% · 141 game52% · 158 games
Morphlingdyrachyo
Morphling
Batrider
Batriderbzm
53% · 105 games57% · 90 games
EnigmaAce
Enigma
Elder Titan
Elder TitanTaiga
50% · 30 games50% · 30 games
Primal BeasttOfu
Primal Beast
Snapfire
SnapfireMisha
44% · 183 games52% · 130 games
DisruptorSeleri
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 73%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2