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The International 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:1
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 29 games
66%
Puck
Pucksignature
bzm · 25 games
64%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 22 games
73%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Ceb · 20 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 18 games
61%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 16 games
69%
Viper
Vipersignature
ATF · 16 games
69%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 15 games
40%

Gaimin Gladiators

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 28 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 20 games
65%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
tOfu · 20 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 18 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
BOOM · 17 games
88%
Tiny
Tiny
BOOM · 17 games
59%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
dyrachyo · 15 games
67%
Marci
Marcisignature
tOfu · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
516 picks · 378 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
473 picks · 691 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
313 picks · 524 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
300 picks · 468 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
283 picks · 652 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
272 picks · 375 bans
46%
Enigma
Enigma
267 picks · 854 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
263 picks · 371 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 41%
Hero pool strength51% OG
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total68% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:12
OG 61%Gaimin Gladiators 39%
The model gave 61% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 39:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerbzm
43% · 133 games51% · 74 games
Shadow Fienddyrachyo
Shadow Fiend
Monkey King
Monkey KingYuragi
49% · 194 games43% · 41 game
UnderlordAce
Underlord
Slardar
SlardarATF
60% · 43 games54% · 320 games
TinyBOOM
Tiny
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTaiga
55% · 30 games48% · 153 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Snapfire
SnapfireMisha
49% · 257 games51% · 69 games
SilencertOfu
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed40:44
OG 60%Gaimin Gladiators 40%
The model gave 60% on OG — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 54:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYuragi
52% · 74 games53% · 69 games
Lifestealerdyrachyo
Lifestealer
Pangolier
Pangolierbzm
50% · 146 games55% · 184 games
Storm SpiritBOOM
Storm Spirit
Viper
ViperATF
48% · 59 games47% · 89 games
Primal BeastAce
Primal Beast
Clockwerk
ClockwerkTaiga
49% · 120 games49% · 49 games
SilencertOfu
Silencer
Jakiro
JakiroMisha
46% · 58 games49% · 66 games
Crystal MaidenSeleri
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct34:25
OG 60%Gaimin Gladiators 40%
The model gave 60% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 41:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenYuragi
61% · 68 games40% · 172 games
KunkkaBOOM
Kunkka
Invoker
Invokerbzm
40% · 166 games50% · 39 games
Shadow Fienddyrachyo
Shadow Fiend
Sand King
Sand KingATF
54% · 107 games55% · 162 games
BeastmasterAce
Beastmaster
Jakiro
JakiroMisha
50% · 115 games46% · 115 games
DisruptortOfu
Disruptor
Mirana
MiranaTaiga
56% · 128 games51% · 96 games
UndyingSeleri
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 68%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3