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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Snapfire
Snapfire
Misha · 11 games
45%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Yuragi · 10 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Taiga · 10 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 9 games
56%
Oracle
Oracle
Taiga · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
bzm · 8 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
bzm · 8 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 8 games
50%

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 27 games
70%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 20 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 17 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 16 games
69%
Lina
Linasignature
dyrachyo · 15 games
87%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 15 games
80%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 15 games
73%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
798 picks · 562 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
569 picks · 404 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
522 picks · 562 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
514 picks · 421 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
457 picks · 741 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
416 picks · 293 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
414 picks · 839 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
367 picks · 866 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 66%
Hero pool strength60% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head6 – 0
Model total69% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct2:14
OG 39%Gaimin Gladiators 61%
The model gave 61% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 17:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkYuragi
49% · 134 games48% · 196 games
BeastmasterAce
Beastmaster
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightbzm
55% · 159 games52% · 110 games
Queen of PainQuinn
Queen of Pain
Death Prophet
Death ProphetDM
48% · 470 games51% · 94 games
Drow Rangerdyrachyo
Drow Ranger
Chen
ChenChuvash
56% · 73 games48% · 320 games
RubicktOfu
Rubick
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritTaiga
43% · 81 game53% · 197 games
Treant ProtectorSeleri
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct5:22
OG 39%Gaimin Gladiators 61%
The model gave 61% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 22:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYuragi
50% · 185 games57% · 334 games
Nature's Prophetdyrachyo
Nature's Prophet
Timbersaw
Timbersawbzm
54% · 185 games54% · 266 games
BeastmasterAce
Beastmaster
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightDM
47% · 209 games52% · 295 games
Dragon KnightQuinn
Dragon Knight
Rubick
RubickChuvash
44% · 528 games49% · 270 games
UndyingSeleri
Undying
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritTaiga
43% · 430 games50% · 372 games
MiranatOfu
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 69%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2