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DreamLeague Season 29. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GLYPHloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Skem · 24 games
42%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Tims · 24 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
Force · 22 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Tims · 22 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
Force · 20 games
45%
Tusk
Tusk
Tims · 19 games
58%
Chen
Chensignature
Skem · 18 games
72%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Yopaj · 17 games
71%

GLYPH

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
NARMAN · 3 games
100%
Largo
Largooften banned
zeal · 3 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Emo · 3 games
33%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
zeal · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Emo · 2 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jhocam · 2 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Jhocam · 2 games
100%
Kez
Kezoften banned
JaCkky · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
631 picks · 695 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
511 picks · 449 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
482 picks · 387 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
431 picks · 288 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
405 picks · 345 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
387 picks · 1068 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
380 picks · 799 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
376 picks · 560 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 78%
Hero pool strength53% GLYPH
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:11
OG 67%GLYPH 33%
The model gave 67% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 40:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaNatsumi
48% · 187 games44% · 196 games
GyrocopterJaCkky
Gyrocopter
Pangolier
PangolierYopaj
44% · 303 games52% · 269 games
Ember SpiritEmo
Ember Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterTORONTOTOKYO
52% · 223 games52% · 246 games
Marszeal
Mars
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorSkem
64% · 110 games49% · 195 games
PhoenixNARMAN
Phoenix
Lion
LionTims
47% · 111 games55% · 28 games
TechiesJhocam
Techies
Game 2prediction correct27:11
OG 65%GLYPH 35%
The model gave 65% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 34:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaNatsumi
40% · 126 games51% · 120 games
DoomJaCkky
Doom
Puck
PuckYopaj
50% · 246 games54% · 286 games
Ember SpiritEmo
Ember Spirit
Slardar
SlardarTORONTOTOKYO
51% · 158 games46% · 214 games
Tidehunterzeal
Tidehunter
Rubick
RubickTims
55% · 65 games47% · 22 games
IoNARMAN
Io
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSkem
51% · 82 games57% · 35 games
GrimstrokeJhocam
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 79%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2