?
arrow_backBack to match
Elite League · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Heroicloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 31 game
58%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 23 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 23 games
57%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ceb · 20 games
65%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 19 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 19 games
58%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Ceb · 17 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 16 games
50%

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
KJ · 25 games
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
4nalog · 18 games
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 13 games
69%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 13 games
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KJ · 13 games
46%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 12 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
490 picks · 781 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
462 picks · 945 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
458 picks · 201 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
455 picks · 613 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
449 picks · 338 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
441 picks · 695 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
439 picks · 203 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
426 picks · 734 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% OG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:34
OG 50%Heroic 50%
The model gave 50% on OG — the game was taken by Heroic in 33:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaTimado
51% · 144 games48% · 247 games
Faceless VoidK1
Faceless Void
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWisper
56% · 195 games49% · 196 games
Keeper of the Light4nalog
Keeper of the Light
Primal Beast
Primal Beastbzm
50% · 246 games44% · 117 games
Death ProphetDavai
Death Prophet
Batrider
BatriderAri
47% · 327 games51% · 236 games
TinyScofield
Tiny
Chen
ChenCeb
57% · 95 games48% · 211 games
DisruptorKJ
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct25:19
OG 52%Heroic 48%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 32:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTimado
47% · 212 games53% · 77 games
Phantom LancerK1
Phantom Lancer
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbzm
51% · 187 games52% · 125 games
Leshrac4nalog
Leshrac
Batrider
BatriderWisper
51% · 248 games52% · 252 games
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
Centaur Warrunner
Marci
MarciAri
48% · 25 games50% · 231 game
TinyScofield
Tiny
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCeb
49% · 192 games47% · 179 games
GyrocopterKJ
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2