DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Inner Circleloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Jakiro
Kidaro · 25 games
Tiny
Stormstormer · 22 games
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 21 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 20 games
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 20 games
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 18 games
Pugnasignature
Lelis · 18 games
Shadow Demon
Daze · 17 games
Inner Circle
Hoodwink
Fernans · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 11 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 9 games
Tusk
Fernans · 9 games
Warlock
flacko · 9 games
Disruptorsignature
flacko · 7 games
Sven
yowaai · 7 games
Pugnaoften banned
Fernans · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
552 picks · 281 bans
Disruptor
498 picks · 505 bans
Puck
373 picks · 1029 bans
Pugna
336 picks · 384 bans
Hoodwink
327 picks · 159 bans
Mars
327 picks · 542 bans
Warlock
326 picks · 150 bans
Tusk
311 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 38%
Hero pool strength57% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:29
OG 52%Inner Circle 48%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 54:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightStojkov
Troll Warlordyowaai
LycanMikSa`
Queen of PainPanda
AbaddonShad
PangolierNorma
TuskDaze
DisruptorFernans
Banen0tail
Jakiroflacko
Game 2prediction correct27:15
OG 54%Inner Circle 46%
The model gave 54% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 42:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezShad
Templar Assassinyowaai
Storm SpiritStojkov
BeastmasterPanda
EnigmaMikSa`
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
SnapfireDaze
Jakiroflacko
Chenn0tail
Bounty HunterFernans
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 53%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2