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The International 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HULIGANIloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Yopaj · 20 games
40%
Windranger
Windranger
Tims · 20 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Tims · 18 games
28%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 17 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Tims · 15 games
53%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Skem · 13 games
46%
Mirana
Mirana
Skem · 13 games
23%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Raven · 12 games
25%

HULIGANI

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sayuw · 47 games
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 36 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
RESPECT · 28 games
54%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 28 games
82%
Rubick
Rubick
sayuw · 26 games
54%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Corrupted · 24 games
46%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Corrupted · 24 games
42%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
RESPECT · 22 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
504 picks · 351 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
359 picks · 423 bans
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
344 picks · 615 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 471 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
312 picks · 597 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
307 picks · 341 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
302 picks · 166 bans
50%
Windranger
Windranger
300 picks · 215 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% HULIGANI
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total63% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:15
OG 55%HULIGANI 45%
The model gave 55% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 1:00:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezNatsumi
49% · 166 games47% · 70 games
Svenssnovv1
Sven
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritYopaj
52% · 314 games53% · 259 games
Shadow FiendMirage
Shadow Fiend
Dark Seer
Dark SeerRaven
47% · 137 games56% · 267 games
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
Centaur Warrunner
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightTims
49% · 111 games50% · 68 games
Earthshakersayuw
Earthshaker
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorSkem
38% · 42 games52% · 106 games
UndyingRESPECT
Undying
Game 2prediction missed20:19
OG 54%HULIGANI 46%
The model gave 54% on OG — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 49:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNatsumi
47% · 216 games41% · 106 games
Drow Rangerssnovv1
Drow Ranger
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYopaj
55% · 298 games54% · 190 games
InvokerMirage
Invoker
Largo
LargoRaven
54% · 153 games49% · 334 games
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
Centaur Warrunner
Mirana
MiranaTims
55% · 79 games70% · 19 games
Elder TitanRESPECT
Elder Titan
Undying
UndyingSkem
55% · 117 games39% · 214 games
Dark Willowsayuw
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct42:6
OG 55%HULIGANI 45%
The model gave 55% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 40:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezNatsumi
50% · 155 games51% · 100 games
Drow Rangerssnovv1
Drow Ranger
Pangolier
PangolierYopaj
46% · 215 games54% · 108 games
EarthshakerMirage
Earthshaker
Enigma
EnigmaRaven
51% · 98 games56% · 359 games
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
Centaur Warrunner
Hoodwink
HoodwinkTims
51% · 406 games44% · 181 game
Dark Willowsayuw
Dark Willow
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorSkem
43% · 50 games52% · 176 games
UndyingRESPECT
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 63%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3