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BetBoom Dacha Belgrade 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Ari · 25 games
52%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 22 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 22 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 19 games
53%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 19 games
53%
Doom
Doomsignature
Wisper · 18 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 18 games
72%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bzm · 17 games
65%

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 40 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 37 games
54%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NARMAN · 34 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 33 games
70%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctoroften banned
bengan · 33 games
52%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 29 games
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
bengan · 26 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Force · 22 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
357 picks · 405 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
357 picks · 347 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
347 picks · 258 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
320 picks · 509 bans
49%
Sven
Sven
294 picks · 305 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
290 picks · 259 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
277 picks · 380 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
273 picks · 460 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% OG
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total77% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:20
OG 66%MOUZ 34%
The model gave 66% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 30:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend23savage
55% · 76 games47% · 108 games
DoomForce
Doom
Invoker
InvokerNine
56% · 109 games43% · 107 games
GyrocopterUlnit
Gyrocopter
Magnus
MagnusWisper
52% · 120 games44% · 97 games
Ember SpiritSupream^
Ember Spirit
Naga Siren
Naga SirenAri
61% · 123 games47% · 138 games
HoodwinkNARMAN
Hoodwink
Marci
MarciCeb
49% · 98 games46% · 76 games
Treant Protectorbengan
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct24:5
OG 64%MOUZ 36%
The model gave 64% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 22:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight23savage
51% · 236 games43% · 68 games
MedusaUlnit
Medusa
Timbersaw
TimbersawWisper
51% · 180 games57% · 63 games
InvokerSupream^
Invoker
Riki
RikiNine
51% · 8 games52% · 241 game
Primal BeastForce
Primal Beast
Windranger
WindrangerCeb
51% · 165 games45% · 153 games
TechiesNARMAN
Techies
Dark Willow
Dark WillowAri
46% · 157 games54% · 221 game
Clockwerkbengan
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 77%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2