PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Jakiro
Kidaro · 26 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 25 games
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 23 games
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 22 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 21 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 20 games
Pugnaoften banned
Lelis · 19 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Daze · 18 games
MOUZ
Tusksignature
yamich · 46 games
Snapfire
Seleri · 45 games
Pudgesignature
yamich · 35 games
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 30 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 30 games
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 27 games
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 25 games
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 25 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
766 picks · 359 bans
Disruptor
598 picks · 609 bans
Hoodwink
559 picks · 300 bans
Dragon Knight
458 picks · 527 bans
Mars
449 picks · 733 bans
Tusk
449 picks · 272 bans
Puck
439 picks · 1144 bans
Jakiro
438 picks · 273 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 66%
Hero pool strength60% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total64% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:24
OG 41%MOUZ 59%
The model gave 59% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 35:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverNatsumi
GyrocopterCrystallis
PangolierYopaj
Queen of PainMidOne
Primal BeastForce
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
SnapfireTims
Tuskyamich
JakiroSkem
Shadow DemonKaori
Game 2prediction correct25:35
OG 41%MOUZ 59%
The model gave 59% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 51:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinNatsumi
JuggernautCrystallis
Primal BeastYopaj
LeshracMidOne
BeastmasterForce
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
JakiroTims
PhoenixKaori
ClockwerkSkem
Spirit Breakeryamich
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 64%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2