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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Snapfire
Snapfire
Tims · 29 games
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Tims · 27 games
59%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Skem · 26 games
46%
Mars
Marssignature
Force · 23 games
65%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 21 game
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 19 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Yopaj · 18 games
61%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Force · 17 games
41%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 74 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 55 games
53%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 48 games
54%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 45 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 43 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
BOOM · 42 games
60%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 42 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 39 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
598 picks · 919 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
481 picks · 521 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 423 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
441 picks · 296 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
416 picks · 1066 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
398 picks · 577 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
395 picks · 583 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 673 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 39%
Hero pool strength57% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total56% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:14
OG 52%MOUZ 48%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 49:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinNatsumi
52% · 375 games50% · 428 games
Dragon KnightCrystallis
Dragon Knight
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainYopaj
43% · 383 games52% · 216 games
BristlebackBOOM
Bristleback
Primal Beast
Primal BeastForce
51% · 239 games45% · 297 games
TinyMidOne
Tiny
Chen
ChenSkem
54% · 328 games48% · 381 game
WarlockSeleri
Warlock
Hoodwink
HoodwinkTims
54% · 475 games51% · 478 games
Jakiroyamich
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed18:34
OG 50%MOUZ 50%
The model gave 50% on OG — the game was taken by MOUZ in 35:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorNatsumi
46% · 118 games53% · 194 games
Templar AssassinCrystallis
Templar Assassin
Monkey King
Monkey KingYopaj
54% · 237 games49% · 118 games
Dark SeerBOOM
Dark Seer
Bristleback
BristlebackForce
48% · 277 games48% · 281 game
Ember SpiritMidOne
Ember Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSkem
49% · 159 games57% · 151 game
ChenSeleri
Chen
Hoodwink
HoodwinkTims
49% · 313 games45% · 360 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct26:15
OG 52%MOUZ 48%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 41:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorNatsumi
46% · 143 games54% · 231 game
Shadow FiendCrystallis
Shadow Fiend
Puck
PuckYopaj
50% · 565 games52% · 226 games
SlardarBOOM
Slardar
Largo
LargoForce
53% · 133 games49% · 340 games
Void SpiritMidOne
Void Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressSkem
42% · 167 games49% · 426 games
JakiroSeleri
Jakiro
Hoodwink
HoodwinkTims
52% · 377 games52% · 162 games
Marciyamich
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 56%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3