?
arrow_backBack to match
OGA Dota PIT EU/CIS Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Topson · 11 games
64%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Saksa · 8 games
75%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Topson · 8 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 8 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Saksa · 8 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
n0tail · 7 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Saksa · 7 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
n0tail · 7 games
57%

Natus Vincere

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
V-Tune · 4 games
50%
Lion
Lion
ALOHADANCE · 4 games
25%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
SoNNeikO · 3 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
No[o]ne · 3 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
RodjER · 3 games
33%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
RAMZES666 · 3 games
67%
Axe
Axe
RAMZES666 · 2 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
RodjER · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
342 picks · 494 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
301 picks · 169 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
290 picks · 226 bans
58%
Weaver
Weaver
276 picks · 627 bans
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
255 picks · 389 bans
46%
Monkey King
Monkey King
250 picks · 726 bans
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
223 picks · 304 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
219 picks · 139 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:27
OG 56%Natus Vincere 44%
The model gave 56% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 42:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzYuragi
47% · 31 game51% · 206 games
LunaV-Tune
Luna
Lina
Linabzm
52% · 191 game47% · 190 games
LeshracNo[o]ne
Leshrac
Mars
MarsATF
44% · 278 games50% · 157 games
Sand KingGeneRaL
Sand King
Weaver
WeaverTaiga
51% · 114 games59% · 162 games
Shadow DemonALOHADANCE
Shadow Demon
Lion
LionMisha
52% · 286 games47% · 185 games
DisruptorSolo
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed9:25
OG 54%Natus Vincere 46%
The model gave 54% on OG — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 32:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshracbzm
44% · 79 games54% · 18 games
NecrophosNo[o]ne
Necrophos
Slardar
SlardarATF
48% · 36 games56% · 144 games
Monkey KingV-Tune
Monkey King
Void Spirit
Void SpiritYuragi
43% · 176 games57% · 80 games
Dragon KnightGeneRaL
Dragon Knight
Io
IoTaiga
47% · 96 games50% · 27 games
SilencerSolo
Silencer
Visage
VisageMisha
little data53% · 118 games
BaneALOHADANCE
Bane
Game 3prediction correct31:13
OG 58%Natus Vincere 42%
The model gave 58% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 31:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerYuragi
49% · 31 game42% · 69 games
Phantom AssassinV-Tune
Phantom Assassin
Windranger
Windrangerbzm
48% · 52 games59% · 11 games
NecrophosNo[o]ne
Necrophos
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidATF
49% · 73 games50% · 78 games
ViperGeneRaL
Viper
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritTaiga
53% · 100 games54% · 142 games
Nyx AssassinALOHADANCE
Nyx Assassin
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMisha
55% · 74 games43% · 30 games
Witch DoctorSolo
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 62%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3