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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ceb · 10 games
60%
Puck
Pucksignature
Topson · 10 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 9 games
78%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Saksa · 9 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Topson · 9 games
44%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Ceb · 8 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Saksa · 8 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Topson · 8 games
25%

Nigma Galaxy

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 22 games
55%
Mars
Marssignature
MinD_ContRoL · 19 games
68%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 18 games
56%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 18 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Miracle- · 16 games
44%
Lion
Lionsignature
KuroKy · 15 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Miracle- · 12 games
83%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
GH · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
488 picks · 197 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
384 picks · 211 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 599 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
362 picks · 880 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
331 picks · 311 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
327 picks · 248 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
320 picks · 458 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
306 picks · 591 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total58% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:35
OG 43%Nigma Galaxy 57%
The model gave 57% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 40:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSumaiL
45% · 99 games53% · 72 games
TerrorbladeiLTW
Terrorblade
Hoodwink
HoodwinkTopson
50% · 80 games61% · 53 games
InvokerMiracle-
Invoker
Magnus
MagnusCeb
55% · 57 games44% · 115 games
MarsMinD_ContRoL
Mars
Dark Willow
Dark WillowSaksa
48% · 82 games50% · 93 games
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
Chen
Chenn0tail
44% · 15 gameslittle data
Vengeful SpiritKuroKy
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction missed34:14
OG 44%Nigma Galaxy 56%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by OG in 33:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSumaiL
47% · 56 games47% · 48 games
LunaiLTW
Luna
Windranger
WindrangerTopson
46% · 36 games51% · 61 game
Ember SpiritMiracle-
Ember Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCeb
52% · 64 games55% · 17 games
AlchemistMinD_ContRoL
Alchemist
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSaksa
53% · 40 games43% · 79 games
TuskGH
Tusk
Io
Ion0tail
49% · 52 games63% · 43 games
RazorKuroKy
Razor
Game 3prediction missed34:10
OG 44%Nigma Galaxy 56%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by OG in 30:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerSumaiL
53% · 42 games49% · 77 games
TerrorbladeiLTW
Terrorblade
Sand King
Sand KingCeb
48% · 90 games59% · 73 games
TimbersawMiracle-
Timbersaw
Razor
RazorTopson
52% · 55 games49% · 153 games
MarsMinD_ContRoL
Mars
Lion
LionSaksa
50% · 222 games43% · 120 games
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenn0tail
50% · 14 gameslittle data
Vengeful SpiritKuroKy
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 58%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3