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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
OGwin 1:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Snapfire
Snapfire
Saksa · 12 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 10 games
40%
Bane
Bane
Misha · 9 games
56%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
SumaiL · 8 games
63%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 8 games
38%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Taiga · 8 games
63%
Razor
Razorsignature
Yuragi · 7 games
71%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Misha · 7 games
57%

Nigma Galaxy

Bane
Banesignature
KuroKy · 6 games
83%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
iLTW · 5 games
80%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Miracle- · 4 games
75%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Miracle- · 4 games
50%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
iLTW · 4 games
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
KuroKy · 4 games
25%
Rubick
Rubick
GH · 4 games
25%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
472 picks · 341 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
437 picks · 622 bans
51%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
365 picks · 459 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
365 picks · 809 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
354 picks · 188 bans
46%
Kunkka
Kunkka
289 picks · 484 bans
55%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
279 picks · 422 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
255 picks · 346 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% OG
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total53% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:15
OG 49%Nigma Galaxy 51%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by OG in 33:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYuragi
53% · 159 games47% · 179 games
MedusaMiracle-
Medusa
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
46% · 186 games56% · 165 games
KunkkaiLTW
Kunkka
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightATF
46% · 107 games44% · 103 games
Spirit BreakerMinD_ContRoL
Spirit Breaker
Io
IoMisha
52% · 207 games55% · 185 games
WeaverGH
Weaver
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeTaiga
46% · 208 games54% · 235 games
BaneKuroKy
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 53%
Series resultOG 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1