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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Razor
Razoroften banned
ATF · 19 games
58%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Ceb · 18 games
61%
Puck
Pucksignature
bzm · 15 games
60%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Taiga · 13 games
77%
Chen
Chensignature
Taiga · 11 games
91%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bzm · 11 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 11 games
36%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 10 games
70%

Nigma Galaxy

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
SumaiL · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 8 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KuroKy · 7 games
43%
Rubick
Rubick
GH · 7 games
14%
Chen
Chensignature
KuroKy · 6 games
67%
Io
Iosignature
GH · 6 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
SumaiL · 6 games
17%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Dreamocel · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
383 picks · 370 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
338 picks · 348 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
307 picks · 222 bans
58%
Mirana
Mirana
275 picks · 277 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
201 picks · 148 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
197 picks · 108 bans
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
191 picks · 251 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
185 picks · 510 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 20%
Hero pool strength56% OG
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total82% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:24
OG 69%Nigma Galaxy 31%
The model gave 69% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 48:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerbzm
44% · 119 games49% · 334 games
Death ProphetSumaiL
Death Prophet
Slark
SlarkYuragi
56% · 55 games53% · 71 game
SvenATF
Sven
Enigma
EnigmaDM
52% · 135 games53% · 100 games
LycanMinD_ContRoL
Lycan
Rubick
RubickMisha
49% · 217 games51% · 322 games
TuskGH
Tusk
Tiny
TinyTaiga
48% · 517 games47% · 216 games
EnchantressKuroKy
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed14:32
OG 70%Nigma Galaxy 30%
The model gave 70% on OG — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 26:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYuragi
53% · 63 games47% · 160 games
LeshracSumaiL
Leshrac
Death Prophet
Death Prophetbzm
47% · 158 games47% · 151 game
Nature's ProphetMinD_ContRoL
Nature's Prophet
Enigma
EnigmaDM
56% · 65 games52% · 68 games
SlarkATF
Slark
Tusk
TuskTaiga
55% · 140 games41% · 116 games
IoGH
Io
Rubick
RubickMisha
51% · 120 games56% · 51 game
RikiKuroKy
Riki
Game 3prediction missed9:27
OG 69%Nigma Galaxy 31%
The model gave 69% on OG — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 40:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperYuragi
43% · 43 games47% · 107 games
Nature's ProphetMinD_ContRoL
Nature's Prophet
Snapfire
Snapfirebzm
47% · 225 games53% · 178 games
RazorATF
Razor
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDM
47% · 134 games50% · 111 games
Keeper of the LightSumaiL
Keeper of the Light
Rubick
RubickTaiga
46% · 167 games60% · 81 game
Naga SirenGH
Naga Siren
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMisha
51% · 105 games55% · 197 games
UndyingKuroKy
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 82%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3