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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Snapfire
Snapfire
Misha · 11 games
45%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 10 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Yuragi · 10 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Taiga · 10 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
bzm · 9 games
44%
Oracle
Oracle
Taiga · 9 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 9 games
44%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 9 games
33%

Nigma Galaxy

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
GH · 7 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
KuroKy · 7 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 7 games
43%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 7 games
29%
Rubick
Rubick
GH · 6 games
17%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
SumaiL · 5 games
60%
Razor
Razoroften banned
ATF · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
823 picks · 576 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
596 picks · 409 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
522 picks · 548 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
515 picks · 417 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
481 picks · 782 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
433 picks · 894 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
429 picks · 305 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
380 picks · 285 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 35%
Hero pool strength52% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total63% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:18
OG 57%Nigma Galaxy 43%
The model gave 57% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 53:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mirana
MiranaYuragi
50% · 357 games55% · 76 games
SpectreSumaiL
Spectre
Zeus
Zeusbzm
49% · 219 games50% · 218 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDM
52% · 367 games46% · 484 games
SnapfireMinD_ContRoL
Snapfire
Rubick
RubickTaiga
47% · 639 games49% · 925 games
TinyGH
Tiny
Marci
MarciChuvash
51% · 466 games53% · 345 games
UndyingKuroKy
Undying
Game 2prediction correct38:14
OG 55%Nigma Galaxy 45%
The model gave 55% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 35:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYuragi
52% · 177 games47% · 99 games
Drow RangerSumaiL
Drow Ranger
Doom
DoomDM
49% · 138 games45% · 331 game
Death ProphetMinD_ContRoL
Death Prophet
Invoker
Invokerbzm
48% · 108 games59% · 149 games
RazorATF
Razor
Marci
MarciChuvash
50% · 266 games53% · 125 games
EarthshakerKuroKy
Earthshaker
Disruptor
DisruptorTaiga
51% · 117 games47% · 102 games
IoGH
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 63%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2