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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Palianytsiawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Ari · 24 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 22 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 22 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 20 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 19 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 19 games
68%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 18 games
67%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Ari · 17 games
59%

Palianytsia

Snapfire
Snapfire
QBFY · 7 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Moonlight · 5 games
80%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
kreker · 5 games
80%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Crystallize · 4 games
75%
Doom
Doomoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 3 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 3 games
100%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
QBFY · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
349 picks · 258 bans
46%
Rubick
Rubick
327 picks · 316 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
325 picks · 453 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
323 picks · 376 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
315 picks · 268 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
290 picks · 448 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
286 picks · 479 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
284 picks · 403 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Palianytsia
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:43
OG 68%Palianytsia 32%
The model gave 68% on OG — the game was taken by Palianytsia in 1:02:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windranger23savage
49% · 231 game51% · 326 games
LunaCrystallize
Luna
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNine
47% · 349 games51% · 278 games
KunkkafortniteMan
Kunkka
Timbersaw
TimbersawWisper
52% · 300 games48% · 319 games
Primal BeastMoonlight
Primal Beast
Batrider
BatriderAri
50% · 313 games51% · 265 games
Clockwerkkreker
Clockwerk
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritCeb
44% · 196 games58% · 201 game
LeshracQBFY
Leshrac
Game 2prediction correct42:14
OG 70%Palianytsia 30%
The model gave 70% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 33:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand KingNine
51% · 72 games46% · 120 games
MedusaCrystallize
Medusa
Mirana
MiranaCeb
50% · 153 games46% · 295 games
MarsfortniteMan
Mars
Faceless Void
Faceless Void23savage
50% · 212 games50% · 254 games
Primal BeastMoonlight
Primal Beast
Doom
DoomWisper
50% · 240 games46% · 130 games
Alchemistkreker
Alchemist
Batrider
BatriderAri
57% · 290 games53% · 168 games
LeshracQBFY
Leshrac
Game 3prediction missed22:47
OG 70%Palianytsia 30%
The model gave 70% on OG — the game was taken by Palianytsia in 43:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
Bristleback23savage
54% · 60 games53% · 71 game
Sand KingMoonlight
Sand King
Invoker
InvokerNine
58% · 94 games48% · 59 games
Shadow FiendCrystallize
Shadow Fiend
Slardar
SlardarWisper
53% · 122 games47% · 278 games
Centaur WarrunnerfortniteMan
Centaur Warrunner
Chen
ChenCeb
53% · 98 games43% · 155 games
Dark WillowQBFY
Dark Willow
Tiny
TinyAri
51% · 283 games43% · 94 games
Alchemistkreker
Alchemist
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 84%
Series resultPalianytsia 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3