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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Pipsqueak+4win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 23 games
48%
Tiny
Tiny
Stormstormer · 20 games
55%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 19 games
42%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 19 games
37%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Stormstormer · 18 games
39%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 18 games
39%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Lelis · 16 games
63%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Shad · 16 games
69%

Pipsqueak+4

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 15 games
80%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 14 games
50%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 12 games
67%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Kidaro · 10 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 9 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
xn丶e · 9 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 9 games
56%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Kidaro · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
422 picks · 392 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
394 picks · 199 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 892 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
316 picks · 360 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
285 picks · 227 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
283 picks · 138 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
275 picks · 672 bans
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
274 picks · 830 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:31
OG 60%Pipsqueak+4 40%
The model gave 60% on OG — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 33:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterShad
49% · 271 game59% · 143 games
UrsaNande
Ursa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightStojkov
45% · 284 games55% · 106 games
Ogre MagiPalantimos
Ogre Magi
Axe
AxeMikSa`
43% · 100 games51% · 282 games
Puckxn丶e
Puck
Warlock
WarlockLelis
52% · 233 games49% · 164 games
Shadow DemonKaori
Shadow Demon
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageDaze
49% · 24 games50% · 217 games
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct30:7
OG 61%Pipsqueak+4 39%
The model gave 61% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 29:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaShad
50% · 109 games61% · 15 games
MeepoNande
Meepo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStojkov
44% · 314 games50% · 96 games
Ogre MagiPalantimos
Ogre Magi
Tidehunter
TidehunterMikSa`
54% · 124 games50% · 317 games
Ember Spiritxn丶e
Ember Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkDaze
45% · 139 games52% · 186 games
PugnaKaori
Pugna
Disruptor
DisruptorLelis
50% · 149 games52% · 221 game
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Game 3prediction missed10:33
OG 61%Pipsqueak+4 39%
The model gave 61% on OG — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 34:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordShad
54% · 77 games47% · 99 games
SvenNande
Sven
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainStojkov
47% · 202 games52% · 223 games
Storm Spiritxn丶e
Storm Spirit
Abaddon
AbaddonMikSa`
51% · 175 games46% · 85 games
SlardarPalantimos
Slardar
Lion
LionLelis
52% · 141 game53% · 200 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Hoodwink
HoodwinkDaze
48% · 181 game52% · 169 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 74%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3