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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PSG Questwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 30 games
53%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 16 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Chuvash · 14 games
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Taiga · 14 games
64%
Tiny
Tiny
bzm · 14 games
57%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Taiga · 13 games
62%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Yuragi · 13 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 12 games
50%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 32 games
66%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 21 game
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Wuiter · 18 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 16 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 16 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 16 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
TA2000 · 13 games
77%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
764 picks · 605 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
548 picks · 463 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
422 picks · 995 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
421 picks · 380 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 929 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
394 picks · 598 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
393 picks · 670 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
389 picks · 580 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% PSG Quest
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total59% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:24
OG 54%PSG Quest 46%
The model gave 54% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 56:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenYuragi
61% · 58 games45% · 67 games
MorphlingTA2000
Morphling
Invoker
Invokerbzm
52% · 64 games51% · 53 games
MarsATF
Mars
Venomancer
VenomancerDM
49% · 23 games42% · 8 games
OmniknightNo!ob
Omniknight
Elder Titan
Elder TitanChuvash
48% · 19 games40% · 27 games
TechiesOmaR
Techies
53% · 9 games
Shadow DemonKaori
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed36:43
OG 56%PSG Quest 44%
The model gave 56% on OG — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 58:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingbzm
55% · 98 games52% · 112 games
RazorATF
Razor
Windranger
WindrangerYuragi
44% · 37 games47% · 81 game
Void SpiritNo!ob
Void Spirit
Venomancer
VenomancerDM
57% · 26 games42% · 39 games
MagnusTA2000
Magnus
Snapfire
SnapfireChuvash
54% · 198 games42% · 109 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
53% · 18 games
Spirit BreakerOmaR
Spirit Breaker
Game 3prediction missed12:26
OG 56%PSG Quest 44%
The model gave 56% on OG — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 26:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistYuragi
55% · 105 games50% · 83 games
Templar AssassinTA2000
Templar Assassin
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
48% · 112 games54% · 191 game
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Magnus
MagnusDM
47% · 59 games41% · 111 games
MarsATF
Mars
Disruptor
DisruptorChuvash
56% · 233 games48% · 46 games
TechiesOmaR
Techies
44% · 78 games
SilencerKaori
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 59%
Series resultPSG Quest 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3