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Elite League · BO2
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PSG Questloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 31 game
58%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 22 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 22 games
55%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 18 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 18 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ceb · 17 games
71%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Ceb · 17 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 16 games
50%

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kaori · 21 game
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 17 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 15 games
53%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 14 games
43%
Lion
Lionsignature
OmaR · 14 games
64%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 14 games
36%
Rubick
Rubick
OmaR · 14 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Malik · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
498 picks · 787 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
460 picks · 971 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
456 picks · 602 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
454 picks · 200 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
451 picks · 352 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
448 picks · 712 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
441 picks · 203 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
427 picks · 726 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% OG
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total56% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:15
OG 52%PSG Quest 48%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 33:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTimado
54% · 158 games36% · 22 games
Chaos KnightTA2000
Chaos Knight
Kunkka
Kunkkabzm
60% · 95 games43% · 166 games
Dragon KnightNo!ob
Dragon Knight
Dark Seer
Dark SeerWisper
54% · 76 games44% · 44 games
AxeMalik
Axe
Bane
BaneCeb
56% · 27 games52% · 210 games
Shadow DemonOmaR
Shadow Demon
Tiny
TinyAri
44% · 140 games51% · 54 games
IoDukalis
Io
Game 2prediction correct38:29
OG 52%PSG Quest 48%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 54:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
BrewmasterWisper
47% · 159 games50% · 83 games
WindrangerTA2000
Windranger
Marci
MarciTimado
49% · 39 games48% · 138 games
Primal BeastMalik
Primal Beast
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritbzm
45% · 94 games60% · 98 games
KunkkaNo!ob
Kunkka
Snapfire
SnapfireAri
41% · 164 games53% · 115 games
Shadow DemonOmaR
Shadow Demon
Io
IoCeb
53% · 69 games57% · 91 game
Crystal MaidenDukalis
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 56%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2