The International 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Royal Never Give Uploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Razorsignature
ATF · 28 games
Pucksignature
bzm · 25 games
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 22 games
Earthshakersignature
Ceb · 20 games
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 18 games
Vipersignature
ATF · 17 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 16 games
Iooften banned
Ceb · 15 games
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
531 picks · 399 bans
Marci
470 picks · 718 bans
Death Prophet
305 picks · 476 bans
Undying
302 picks · 510 bans
Puck
294 picks · 696 bans
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 396 bans
Enigma
267 picks · 852 bans
Pangolier
261 picks · 361 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% OG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:18
OG 62%Royal Never Give Up 38%
The model gave 62% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 32:35.
Game 2prediction correct35:19
OG 62%Royal Never Give Up 38%
The model gave 62% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 32:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 62%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2