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DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 32 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Chuvash · 18 games
56%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 18 games
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Taiga · 17 games
65%
Doom
Doomoften banned
DM · 16 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Taiga · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tiny
bzm · 15 games
53%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
DM · 14 games
43%

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 28 games
71%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 27 games
74%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
75%
Doom
Doomsignature
SabeRLight- · 23 games
61%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 22 games
77%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 18 games
72%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
61%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 15 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
750 picks · 623 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
614 picks · 535 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
549 picks · 1335 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
548 picks · 1082 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
472 picks · 523 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
469 picks · 967 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
463 picks · 1166 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
448 picks · 638 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 55%
Hero pool strength60% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:27
OG 43%Shopify Rebellion 57%
The model gave 57% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by OG in 48:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautYuragi
50% · 116 games53% · 295 games
BatriderMiracle-
Batrider
Timbersaw
Timbersawbzm
43% · 217 games51% · 154 games
BloodseekerArteezy
Bloodseeker
Venomancer
VenomancerDM
50% · 128 games56% · 337 games
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
Beastmaster
Magnus
MagnusCeb
45% · 260 games57% · 258 games
TechiesCr1t-
Techies
Rubick
RubickTaiga
43% · 583 games52% · 260 games
SilencerFly
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct18:37
OG 41%Shopify Rebellion 59%
The model gave 59% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 43:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinbzm
50% · 150 games50% · 117 games
BloodseekerArteezy
Bloodseeker
Morphling
MorphlingYuragi
49% · 182 games54% · 159 games
Void SpiritMiracle-
Void Spirit
Undying
UndyingDM
47% · 252 games59% · 111 games
VisageSabeRLight-
Visage
Windranger
WindrangerCeb
41% · 157 games52% · 246 games
EnchantressFly
Enchantress
Bane
BaneTaiga
44% · 69 games52% · 177 games
Monkey KingCr1t-
Monkey King
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2