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The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Asterwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Saksa · 12 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
n0tail · 9 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 7 games
71%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Saksa · 7 games
57%
Lion
Lionsignature
Saksa · 7 games
71%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 7 games
43%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
n0tail · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Topson · 7 games
29%

Team Aster

Leshrac
Leshracsignature
White丶Album · 19 games
68%
Lion
Lion
BoBoKa · 16 games
56%
Axe
Axesignature
Xxs · 15 games
73%
Puck
Puckoften banned
White丶Album · 15 games
53%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 12 games
75%
Magnus
Magnussignature
White丶Album · 12 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
LaNm · 12 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
LaNm · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
306 picks · 178 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
283 picks · 404 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
281 picks · 539 bans
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
263 picks · 90 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
259 picks · 375 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 260 bans
59%
Luna
Luna
227 picks · 325 bans
51%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
222 picks · 377 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 64%
Hero pool strength54% Team Aster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:41
OG 42%Team Aster 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 48:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSumaiL
48% · 106 games48% · 82 games
UrsaMonet
Ursa
Tiny
TinyTopson
46% · 129 games44% · 120 games
Storm SpiritWhite丶Album
Storm Spirit
Earthshaker
EarthshakerCeb
54% · 73 games59% · 84 games
BeastmasterXxs
Beastmaster
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionn0tail
57% · 102 games47% · 81 game
IoLaNm
Io
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageSaksa
53% · 16 games45% · 59 games
WeaverBoBoKa
Weaver
Game 2prediction correct10:35
OG 44%Team Aster 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 41:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzSumaiL
48% · 42 games46% · 116 games
TinyMonet
Tiny
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTopson
56% · 107 games45% · 67 games
DoomXxs
Doom
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCeb
58% · 91 game49% · 181 game
LinaWhite丶Album
Lina
Rubick
RubickSaksa
52% · 116 games46% · 102 games
Monkey KingBoBoKa
Monkey King
Tidehunter
Tidehuntern0tail
45% · 169 games57% · 59 games
Treant ProtectorLaNm
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 62%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2