?
arrow_backBack to match
Asian Dragon Series: Continental Collision · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:1
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Essenceloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Ari · 18 games
61%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 15 games
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nine · 15 games
47%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 15 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 15 games
47%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 13 games
23%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
xNova · 11 games
36%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nine · 11 games
55%

Team Essence

Zeus
Zeus
Varizh · 5 games
20%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
NARMAN · 3 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
dalul · 2 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
db- · 2 games
0%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Varizh · 2 games
0%
Mirana
Mirana
Varizh · 2 games
0%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Raven · 2 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
db- · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
484 picks · 626 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
466 picks · 402 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
459 picks · 580 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
444 picks · 554 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
429 picks · 499 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 786 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
410 picks · 916 bans
59%
Lion
Lion
396 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 42%
Hero pool strength56% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:36
OG 64%Team Essence 36%
The model gave 64% on OG — the game was taken by Team Essence in 56:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealer23savage
54% · 154 games50% · 175 games
LinaArmel
Lina
Magnus
MagnusCeb
54% · 184 games51% · 392 games
Dragon KnightRaven
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
PangolierNine
48% · 368 games45% · 318 games
Dark WillowNARMAN
Dark Willow
Phoenix
PhoenixxNova
50% · 320 games51% · 382 games
Shadow DemonPonyo
Shadow Demon
Muerta
MuertaDaze
49% · 241 game
Game 2prediction correct33:11
OG 63%Team Essence 37%
The model gave 63% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 25:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin23savage
43% · 60 games52% · 291 game
Dragon KnightRaven
Dragon Knight
Night Stalker
Night StalkerNine
47% · 63 games54% · 203 games
PuckArmel
Puck
Phoenix
PhoenixCeb
50% · 281 game57% · 35 games
Spirit BreakerNARMAN
Spirit Breaker
Warlock
WarlockxNova
44% · 31 game54% · 258 games
Shadow DemonPonyo
Shadow Demon
Batrider
BatriderDaze
46% · 352 games
Game 3prediction correct40:22
OG 61%Team Essence 39%
The model gave 61% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 44:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomCeb
50% · 264 games50% · 127 games
LinaArmel
Lina
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin23savage
43% · 92 games52% · 197 games
BristlebackRaven
Bristleback
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNine
51% · 72 games56% · 338 games
ClockwerkPonyo
Clockwerk
Muerta
MuertaDaze
49% · 280 games48% · 208 games
Dark WillowNARMAN
Dark Willow
Lich
LichxNova
49% · 162 games
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 74%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3