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BLAST Slam I · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2
series probability
9%91%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Falconswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 29 games
41%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Ari · 25 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 23 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Wisper · 17 games
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 17 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 15 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bzm · 15 games
67%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nine · 15 games
53%

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 43 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 32 games
84%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 30 games
73%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 28 games
71%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 26 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 25 games
56%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 23 games
78%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 22 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
505 picks · 688 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
431 picks · 486 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
374 picks · 535 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
356 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
350 picks · 180 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
329 picks · 473 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
322 picks · 634 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
319 picks · 325 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 69%
Hero pool strength58% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total91% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:9
OG 21%Team Falcons 79%
The model gave 79% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by OG in 33:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling23savage
45% · 319 games50% · 208 games
AlchemistSkiter
Alchemist
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerWisper
47% · 112 games63% · 116 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Tiny
TinyNine
46% · 334 games52% · 152 games
Sand KingMalr1ne
Sand King
Batrider
BatriderAri
49% · 372 games48% · 392 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagixNova
46% · 64 games53% · 333 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct16:32
OG 21%Team Falcons 79%
The model gave 79% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 46:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Ranger23savage
57% · 31 game46% · 125 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerWisper
45% · 126 games52% · 175 games
TimbersawMalr1ne
Timbersaw
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNine
52% · 155 games49% · 193 games
AlchemistSkiter
Alchemist
Tusk
TuskAri
43% · 348 games49% · 257 games
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonxNova
56% · 328 games55% · 238 games
LionCr1t-
Lion
Game 3prediction correct9:26
OG 20%Team Falcons 80%
The model gave 80% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 44:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling23savage
48% · 278 games56% · 217 games
MagnusATF
Magnus
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNine
53% · 344 games55% · 272 games
AlchemistSkiter
Alchemist
Mars
MarsWisper
46% · 254 games42% · 145 games
LinaMalr1ne
Lina
Chen
ChenxNova
56% · 151 game48% · 402 games
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
49% · 326 games47% · 317 games
TuskCr1t-
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 91%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3