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PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Liquidloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 19 games
84%
Puck
Puckoften banned
bzm · 17 games
59%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 15 games
80%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Taiga · 14 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 14 games
50%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 14 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 12 games
83%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
bzm · 12 games
67%

Team Liquid

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
iNSaNiA · 14 games
36%
Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 14 games
36%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 12 games
42%
Io
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 11 games
55%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 11 games
55%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 11 games
64%
Razor
Razorsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 11 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Boxi · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
649 picks · 472 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
454 picks · 969 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
380 picks · 464 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
368 picks · 190 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
341 picks · 561 bans
47%
Marci
Marci
336 picks · 654 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 428 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
304 picks · 589 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% OG
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total55% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:36
OG 53%Team Liquid 47%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 32:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorATF
51% · 170 games45% · 22 games
BristlebackMATUMBAMAN
Bristleback
Ursa
UrsaYuragi
47% · 64 games49% · 254 games
TinymiCKe
Tiny
Batrider
Batriderbzm
56% · 111 games49% · 40 games
Vengeful Spiritzai
Vengeful Spirit
Earthshaker
EarthshakerCeb
59% · 52 games43% · 143 games
DawnbreakerBoxi
Dawnbreaker
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernTaiga
53% · 167 games48% · 105 games
Keeper of the LightiNSaNiA
Keeper of the Light
Game 2prediction correct47:14
OG 50%Team Liquid 50%
The model gave 50% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 22:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
Batriderbzm
46% · 98 games58% · 23 games
BristlebackMATUMBAMAN
Bristleback
Lone Druid
Lone DruidYuragi
48% · 7 games55% · 125 games
Razorzai
Razor
Slardar
SlardarATF
52% · 38 games47% · 137 games
PangoliermiCKe
Pangolier
Io
IoCeb
59% · 191 game43% · 92 games
HoodwinkBoxi
Hoodwink
Marci
MarciTaiga
48% · 85 games43% · 42 games
PugnaiNSaNiA
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2