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ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 22 games
73%
Puck
Pucksignature
bzm · 21 game
62%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 19 games
68%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 18 games
78%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Taiga · 15 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 15 games
73%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 14 games
43%
Viper
Viperoften banned
ATF · 14 games
57%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 20 games
35%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 15 games
53%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Boxi · 14 games
57%
Razor
Razorsignature
zai · 13 games
69%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
zai · 12 games
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
iNSaNiA · 12 games
33%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 12 games
58%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
MATUMBAMAN · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
722 picks · 543 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
511 picks · 1024 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
447 picks · 569 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
426 picks · 757 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
365 picks · 194 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
351 picks · 379 bans
56%
Zeus
Zeus
316 picks · 361 bans
47%
Razor
Razor
309 picks · 614 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 36%
Hero pool strength56% OG
Head-to-head3 – 4
Model total71% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:21
OG 63%Team Liquid 37%
The model gave 63% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 33:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinbzm
52% · 256 games53% · 80 games
LycanMATUMBAMAN
Lycan
Razor
RazorATF
48% · 256 games44% · 298 games
PuckmiCKe
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYuragi
48% · 275 games46% · 151 game
Dawnbreakerzai
Dawnbreaker
Chen
ChenTaiga
59% · 77 games51% · 403 games
TinyBoxi
Tiny
Earthshaker
EarthshakerChuvash
56% · 96 games47% · 28 games
Ancient ApparitioniNSaNiA
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct34:25
OG 61%Team Liquid 39%
The model gave 61% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 36:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYuragi
48% · 133 games54% · 18 games
Lone DruidMATUMBAMAN
Lone Druid
Pangolier
Pangolierbzm
50% · 155 games51% · 300 games
Storm SpiritmiCKe
Storm Spirit
Razor
RazorATF
43% · 128 games58% · 77 games
Enigmazai
Enigma
Elder Titan
Elder TitanTaiga
60% · 30 games55% · 72 games
CheniNSaNiA
Chen
Snapfire
SnapfireChuvash
39% · 161 game53% · 140 games
Nyx AssassinBoxi
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 71%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2