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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:1
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Liquidloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 29 games
55%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 15 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Chuvash · 13 games
54%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Taiga · 13 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 13 games
62%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Taiga · 12 games
67%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Yuragi · 12 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 11 games
55%

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 32 games
78%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
80%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nisha · 20 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 18 games
83%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
82%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
82%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 17 games
88%
Mirana
Miranasignature
iNSaNiA · 14 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
988 picks · 707 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
603 picks · 448 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
583 picks · 442 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
545 picks · 874 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
506 picks · 372 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
498 picks · 354 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
495 picks · 1083 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
492 picks · 1175 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 65%
Hero pool strength62% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 8
Model total82% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:39
OG 31%Team Liquid 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerYuragi
51% · 185 games57% · 88 games
Monkey KingmiCKe
Monkey King
Underlord
UnderlordMinD_ContRoL
47% · 112 games56% · 110 games
Beastmasterzai
Beastmaster
Invoker
Invokerbzm
39% · 125 games57% · 154 games
PangolierNisha
Pangolier
Dark Willow
Dark WillowTaiga
48% · 55 games47% · 66 games
Keeper of the LightBoxi
Keeper of the Light
51% · 59 games
SilenceriNSaNiA
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed36:16
OG 30%Team Liquid 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by OG in 37:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistbzm
50% · 115 games40% · 32 games
Phantom LancermiCKe
Phantom Lancer
Ursa
UrsaYuragi
48% · 156 games57% · 126 games
Doomzai
Doom
Batrider
BatriderMinD_ContRoL
50% · 241 game48% · 188 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Io
IoTaiga
47% · 96 games52% · 124 games
Monkey KingBoxi
Monkey King
49% · 138 games
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction missed25:11
OG 31%Team Liquid 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by OG in 35:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuragi
52% · 73 games34% · 25 games
MuertamiCKe
Muerta
Tidehunter
TidehunterMinD_ContRoL
41% · 21 game53% · 70 games
AlchemistNisha
Alchemist
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
52% · 47 games49% · 43 games
Underlordzai
Underlord
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightTaiga
50% · 88 games56% · 79 games
Skywrath MageBoxi
Skywrath Mage
47% · 12 games
Witch DoctoriNSaNiA
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 82%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3