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UNIVERSE by FISSURE · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Windranger
Windranger
Natsumi · 19 games
47%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Natsumi · 14 games
43%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Skem · 13 games
46%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 12 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Tims · 12 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
Skem · 12 games
17%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Tims · 11 games
36%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Tims · 11 games
64%

Team Liquid

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Boxi · 33 games
52%
Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 23 games
61%
Windranger
Windranger
miCKe · 21 game
57%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorsignature
tOfu · 21 game
62%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Boxi · 19 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 19 games
58%
Mirana
Mirana
tOfu · 15 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Ace · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
602 picks · 387 bans
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
565 picks · 340 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
461 picks · 202 bans
51%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
445 picks · 391 bans
56%
Windranger
Windranger
425 picks · 209 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
351 picks · 570 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
330 picks · 612 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
307 picks · 424 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 5
Model total65% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:50
OG 42%Team Liquid 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:03:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNatsumi
51% · 193 games53% · 340 games
WindrangermiCKe
Windranger
Doom
DoomSSS
52% · 361 game54% · 80 games
EnigmaWisper
Enigma
Invoker
InvokerTopson
57% · 236 games39% · 186 games
SnapfireMalr1ne
Snapfire
Techies
TechiesOneJey
49% · 357 games51% · 196 games
Winter WyverntOfu
Winter Wyvern
Warlock
WarlockSkem
45% · 208 games50% · 553 games
HoodwinkBoxi
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct46:24
OG 35%Team Liquid 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 45:46.
Game 3prediction correct15:39
OG 47%Team Liquid 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
ZeusTopson
41% · 32 games52% · 97 games
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
Nature's Prophet
Sven
SvenNatsumi
54% · 133 games53% · 116 games
AxeWisper
Axe
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSSS
47% · 175 games49% · 107 games
SnapfireMalr1ne
Snapfire
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterOneJey
49% · 159 games57% · 132 games
LargotOfu
Largo
Dazzle
DazzleSkem
48% · 182 games47% · 229 games
Dark WillowBoxi
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 65%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3