?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Secretwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Puck
Pucksignature
bzm · 22 games
64%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 22 games
73%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 22 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 19 games
74%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 17 games
76%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 16 games
38%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Taiga · 15 games
67%
Viper
Vipersignature
ATF · 15 games
60%

Team Secret

Chen
Chensignature
Puppey · 12 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 12 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Nisha · 11 games
55%
Doom
Doomsignature
Zayac · 10 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 10 games
70%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Nisha · 10 games
80%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
742 picks · 560 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
527 picks · 1057 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
462 picks · 598 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
429 picks · 772 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
373 picks · 198 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
363 picks · 397 bans
55%
Zeus
Zeus
323 picks · 368 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
319 picks · 625 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% OG
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total66% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:29
OG 59%Team Secret 41%
The model gave 59% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 49:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painbzm
54% · 116 games42% · 92 games
DawnbreakerCrystallis
Dawnbreaker
Mars
MarsATF
54% · 269 games49% · 29 games
Centaur WarrunnerResolut1on
Centaur Warrunner
Slark
SlarkYuragi
47% · 27 games40% · 199 games
Void SpiritNisha
Void Spirit
Chen
ChenChuvash
63% · 49 games50% · 113 games
Treant ProtectorPuppey
Treant Protector
Dark Willow
Dark WillowTaiga
58% · 52 games44% · 80 games
PhoenixZayac
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed32:51
OG 59%Team Secret 41%
The model gave 59% on OG — the game was taken by Team Secret in 55:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaYuragi
52% · 133 games54% · 221 game
Templar AssassinNisha
Templar Assassin
Puck
Puckbzm
49% · 158 games48% · 74 games
EnigmaResolut1on
Enigma
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
52% · 107 games47% · 37 games
SlarkCrystallis
Slark
Phoenix
PhoenixTaiga
53% · 61 game42% · 94 games
TuskZayac
Tusk
Sven
SvenChuvash
52% · 38 games51% · 71 game
Dark WillowPuppey
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction missed20:33
OG 60%Team Secret 40%
The model gave 60% on OG — the game was taken by Team Secret in 33:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorATF
54% · 165 games40% · 83 games
Phantom AssassinCrystallis
Phantom Assassin
Spectre
SpectreYuragi
52% · 27 games56% · 75 games
EnigmaResolut1on
Enigma
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
48% · 156 games51% · 210 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkTaiga
48% · 110 games54% · 28 games
Crystal MaidenPuppey
Crystal Maiden
Earthshaker
EarthshakerChuvash
53% · 41 game46% · 103 games
TuskZayac
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 66%
Series resultTeam Secret 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3