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OGA Dota PIT EU/CIS Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2
series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Topson · 11 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Saksa · 9 games
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Topson · 9 games
44%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Saksa · 8 games
75%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Topson · 8 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 8 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Saksa · 8 games
88%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
n0tail · 7 games
57%

Team Spirit

Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 17 games
88%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 17 games
76%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Collapse · 16 games
81%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 16 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Miposhka · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
60%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 14 games
71%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
355 picks · 518 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
314 picks · 186 bans
47%
Bane
Bane
309 picks · 245 bans
58%
Weaver
Weaver
298 picks · 664 bans
56%
Monkey King
Monkey King
258 picks · 742 bans
58%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
251 picks · 399 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
229 picks · 309 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
226 picks · 147 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 73%
Hero pool strength59% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total84% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:34
OG 32%Team Spirit 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 25:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYuragi
54% · 113 games49% · 243 games
Storm SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Storm Spirit
Mars
MarsATF
53% · 278 games51% · 162 games
Troll WarlordYatoro
Troll Warlord
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
45% · 223 games49% · 133 games
Legion CommanderCollapse
Legion Commander
Disruptor
DisruptorTaiga
51% · 129 games50% · 199 games
HoodwinkMiposhka
Hoodwink
Snapfire
SnapfireMisha
52% · 202 games48% · 208 games
IoMira
Io
Game 2prediction missed35:24
OG 29%Team Spirit 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by OG in 47:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinbzm
59% · 72 games52% · 188 games
Monkey KingYatoro
Monkey King
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainYuragi
50% · 103 games46% · 67 games
Outworld DestroyerTORONTOTOKYO
Outworld Destroyer
Night Stalker
Night StalkerATF
43% · 58 games47% · 28 games
UnderlordCollapse
Underlord
Weaver
WeaverTaiga
52% · 162 games42% · 128 games
Dark WillowMira
Dark Willow
Lion
LionMisha
46% · 184 games58% · 168 games
BaneMiposhka
Bane
Game 3prediction correct24:29
OG 28%Team Spirit 72%
The model gave 72% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverYuragi
43% · 166 games56% · 42 games
SlardarYatoro
Slardar
Tinker
Tinkerbzm
48% · 22 games56% · 36 games
Shadow FiendTORONTOTOKYO
Shadow Fiend
Night Stalker
Night StalkerATF
39% · 62 games63% · 86 games
BeastmasterCollapse
Beastmaster
Lion
LionTaiga
41% · 162 games59% · 134 games
BaneMiposhka
Bane
Chen
ChenMisha
48% · 22 games52% · 136 games
Monkey KingMira
Monkey King
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 84%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3