?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 21 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 29 games
52%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Ceb · 21 game
62%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Yuragi · 18 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
DM · 17 games
53%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Chuvash · 17 games
47%
Venomancer
Venomancersignature
DM · 17 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 16 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 16 games
56%

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 33 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Larl · 27 games
59%
Lich
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 26 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 23 games
65%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 20 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 19 games
68%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Collapse · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 18 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
367 picks · 179 bans
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
280 picks · 394 bans
50%
Undying
Undying
232 picks · 405 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
229 picks · 362 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
222 picks · 337 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
221 picks · 445 bans
52%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
216 picks · 418 bans
52%
Morphling
Morphling
213 picks · 393 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 48%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total86% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:30
OG 28%Team Spirit 72%
The model gave 72% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 56:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
Pangolierbzm
55% · 151 game42% · 46 games
Phantom AssassinYatoro
Phantom Assassin
Alchemist
AlchemistYuragi
50% · 38 games43% · 74 games
EarthshakerLarl
Earthshaker
Tidehunter
TidehunterMinD_ContRoL
51% · 61 game55% · 41 game
Legion CommanderCollapse
Legion Commander
Bane
BaneCeb
55% · 12 games50% · 60 games
Dark WillowMira
Dark Willow
48% · 41 game
Vengeful SpiritMiposhka
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct25:36
OG 29%Team Spirit 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
Kunkkabzm
44% · 64 games58% · 64 games
BloodseekerYatoro
Bloodseeker
Slark
SlarkYuragi
56% · 134 games46% · 39 games
BrewmasterCollapse
Brewmaster
Alchemist
AlchemistCeb
44% · 82 games29% · 3 games
DazzleLarl
Dazzle
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerMinD_ContRoL
48% · 101 game51% · 130 games
SnapfireMira
Snapfire
51% · 145 games
DisruptorMiposhka
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 86%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2