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ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TSMwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 18 games
44%
Razor
Razorsignature
Yuragi · 15 games
67%
Bane
Banesignature
Misha · 13 games
62%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
bzm · 12 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Taiga · 11 games
55%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yuragi · 11 games
73%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Misha · 10 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 10 games
70%

TSM

Bane
Banesignature
DuBu · 18 games
72%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 12 games
67%
Io
Iosignature
MoonMeander · 11 games
73%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
80%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
MoonMeander · 10 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 10 games
70%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
MoonMeander · 9 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
472 picks · 633 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
452 picks · 286 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
441 picks · 492 bans
50%
Sand King
Sand King
399 picks · 530 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
360 picks · 790 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
346 picks · 546 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 553 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
332 picks · 508 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:43
OG 44%TSM 56%
The model gave 56% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 55:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerbzm
51% · 262 games43% · 99 games
Chaos KnightTimado
Chaos Knight
Razor
RazorATF
55% · 166 games58% · 214 games
MiranaMoonMeander
Mirana
Monkey King
Monkey KingYuragi
50% · 234 games41% · 219 games
Void Spiritbryle-
Void Spirit
Io
IoTaiga
49% · 253 games49% · 41 game
UnderlordSabeRLight-
Underlord
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanCeb
50% · 93 games52% · 435 games
BaneDuBu
Bane
Game 2prediction correct17:39
OG 48%TSM 52%
The model gave 52% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 39:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinYuragi
40% · 94 games51% · 237 games
Monkey KingTimado
Monkey King
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
46% · 98 games50% · 264 games
Pangolierbryle-
Pangolier
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
51% · 210 games46% · 88 games
Night StalkerSabeRLight-
Night Stalker
Earthshaker
EarthshakerTaiga
50% · 50 games55% · 143 games
Keeper of the LightMoonMeander
Keeper of the Light
Bane
BaneCeb
56% · 359 games53% · 79 games
SilencerDuBu
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 56%
Series resultTSM 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2