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Gamers8 Riyadh Masters · BO2
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TSMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 17 games
82%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 15 games
80%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Taiga · 14 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 14 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
bzm · 14 games
57%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 14 games
71%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
bzm · 12 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 11 games
82%

TSM

Bane
Banesignature
DuBu · 18 games
72%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 13 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 12 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 11 games
64%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Timado · 10 games
90%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
DuBu · 10 games
80%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
MoonMeander · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
580 picks · 445 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
413 picks · 888 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
376 picks · 587 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 470 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
349 picks · 179 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
320 picks · 213 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
305 picks · 366 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
296 picks · 576 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% OG
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total62% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:20
OG 57%TSM 43%
The model gave 57% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 46:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckbzm
46% · 216 games54% · 174 games
TerrorbladeTimado
Terrorblade
Ursa
UrsaYuragi
47% · 76 games46% · 272 games
Tinybryle-
Tiny
Viper
ViperATF
48% · 112 games67% · 21 game
VenomancerSabeRLight-
Venomancer
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTaiga
44% · 197 games58% · 102 games
MarciMoonMeander
Marci
Warlock
WarlockMisha
48% · 71 game53% · 103 games
PhoenixDuBu
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct32:11
OG 57%TSM 43%
The model gave 57% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 28:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackYuragi
53% · 50 games53% · 67 games
Nature's ProphetTimado
Nature's Prophet
Tiny
Tinybzm
51% · 305 games54% · 153 games
Puckbryle-
Puck
Slardar
SlardarATF
54% · 36 games54% · 46 games
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
Brewmaster
Viper
ViperTaiga
46% · 127 games47% · 150 games
HoodwinkMoonMeander
Hoodwink
Lich
LichMisha
43% · 19 games47% · 121 game
DawnbreakerDuBu
Dawnbreaker
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 62%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2