Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Earth Spiritsignature
Saksa · 7 games
Alchemistoften banned
Ceb · 6 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Saksa · 6 games
Puckoften banned
Topson · 6 games
Rikisignature
Topson · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MidOne · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ceb · 5 games
Rubick
Saksa · 5 games
Tundra Esports
Puckoften banned
Nine · 6 games
Abaddon
33 · 4 games
Dark Seeroften banned
33 · 4 games
Grimstroke
Fata · 4 games
Gyrocopter
Fata · 4 games
Ursaoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
410 picks · 940 bans
Void Spirit
373 picks · 535 bans
Death Prophet
349 picks · 699 bans
Mars
327 picks · 548 bans
Grimstroke
314 picks · 311 bans
Tusk
296 picks · 220 bans
Lion
283 picks · 155 bans
Earth Spirit
269 picks · 280 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% OG
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total50% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:11
OG 51%Tundra Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 28:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancerana
Phantom AssassinSkiter
PangolierTopson
Broodmother33
Centaur WarrunnerCeb
MarsNine
Shadow DemonSaksa
GrimstrokeSneyking
Dark Willown0tail
Ancient ApparitionFata
Game 2prediction correct19:40
OG 49%Tundra Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 45:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancerana
Troll WarlordSkiter
BatriderCeb
EnigmaSneyking
Void SpiritTopson
Centaur Warrunner33
HoodwinkSaksa
PangolierNine
Abaddonn0tail
Ancient ApparitionFata
Game 3prediction missed22:37
OG 50%Tundra Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on OG — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 46:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slarkana
LifestealerSkiter
Centaur WarrunnerCeb
Void SpiritNine
BloodseekerTopson
Leshrac33
Dark WillowSaksa
Ancient ApparitionFata
Oraclen0tail
TidehunterSneyking
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 50%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3