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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Puck
Pucksignature
Topson · 10 games
60%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ceb · 9 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 9 games
78%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Saksa · 9 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Topson · 9 games
44%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Ceb · 8 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Saksa · 8 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
n0tail · 7 games
43%

Tundra Esports

Puck
Puckoften banned
Nine · 15 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Sneyking · 12 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Sneyking · 11 games
64%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Fata · 10 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 9 games
89%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Fata · 8 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Fata · 7 games
57%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Skiter · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
485 picks · 197 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
384 picks · 209 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
369 picks · 600 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
361 picks · 881 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
334 picks · 310 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
327 picks · 247 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
320 picks · 455 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
304 picks · 586 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total54% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:29
OG 45%Tundra Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 33:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackSumaiL
53% · 56 games59% · 46 games
LunaSkiter
Luna
Void Spirit
Void SpiritTopson
40% · 120 games56% · 56 games
Winter WyvernNine
Winter Wyvern
Lina
LinaSaksa
45% · 78 games63% · 33 games
Broodmother33
Broodmother
Magnus
MagnusCeb
44% · 66 games52% · 100 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightn0tail
46% · 52 games50% · 137 games
Nyx AssassinFata
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct21:52
OG 44%Tundra Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 42:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracSumaiL
44% · 103 games59% · 96 games
TerrorbladeSkiter
Terrorblade
Arc Warden
Arc WardenTopson
39% · 27 games66% · 81 game
RazorNine
Razor
Alchemist
AlchemistCeb
45% · 39 games52% · 87 games
Tidehunter33
Tidehunter
Lion
LionSaksa
43% · 186 games52% · 95 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Oracle
Oraclen0tail
44% · 102 games53% · 98 games
AbaddonFata
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 54%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2