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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 16 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Taiga · 16 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 12 games
42%
Bane
Bane
Misha · 11 games
55%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yuragi · 11 games
82%
Razor
Razorsignature
Yuragi · 10 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Misha · 10 games
60%
Clinkz
Clinkz
SumaiL · 9 games
56%

Tundra Esports

Bane
Banesignature
Fata · 16 games
75%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 16 games
81%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 14 games
64%
Io
Iosignature
Sneyking · 13 games
69%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 13 games
77%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 12 games
58%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Nine · 11 games
82%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
33 · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
473 picks · 277 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 540 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
368 picks · 513 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
358 picks · 476 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
312 picks · 487 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
290 picks · 517 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
273 picks · 190 bans
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
270 picks · 348 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 68%
Hero pool strength59% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 6
Model total74% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:22
OG 37%Tundra Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by OG in 38:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverYuragi
53% · 123 games44% · 109 games
Batrider33
Batrider
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
48% · 155 games44% · 36 games
Chaos KnightSkiter
Chaos Knight
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
41% · 125 games43% · 210 games
PangolierNine
Pangolier
Enigma
EnigmaTaiga
49% · 14 games65% · 71 game
Keeper of the LightSaksa
Keeper of the Light
Bane
BaneMisha
53% · 204 games55% · 195 games
AbaddonSneyking
Abaddon
Game 2prediction missed38:11
OG 36%Tundra Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by OG in 38:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
42% · 214 games48% · 211 games
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Monkey King
Monkey KingYuragi
57% · 180 games48% · 263 games
KunkkaNine
Kunkka
Mars
MarsATF
43% · 329 games66% · 44 games
Necrophos33
Necrophos
Enigma
EnigmaTaiga
51% · 25 games53% · 223 games
Shadow DemonSaksa
Shadow Demon
Snapfire
SnapfireMisha
47% · 259 games54% · 266 games
IoSneyking
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 74%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2