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ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 18 games
44%
Bane
Banesignature
Misha · 13 games
62%
Razor
Razorsignature
Yuragi · 13 games
62%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
bzm · 11 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Taiga · 11 games
55%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yuragi · 11 games
73%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Misha · 10 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 10 games
70%

Tundra Esports

Doom
Doom
33 · 19 games
58%
Bane
Banesignature
Fata · 18 games
78%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 18 games
72%
Io
Iosignature
Sneyking · 18 games
67%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 16 games
63%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 16 games
75%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 15 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
461 picks · 625 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
450 picks · 284 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
429 picks · 486 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
395 picks · 523 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
357 picks · 780 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
346 picks · 544 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
342 picks · 525 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
322 picks · 495 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 64%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 5
Model total61% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:24
OG 45%Tundra Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 25:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Viper
ViperATF
36% · 76 games52% · 140 games
Keeper of the LightNine
Keeper of the Light
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbzm
50% · 141 game53% · 52 games
JuggernautSkiter
Juggernaut
Leshrac
LeshracYuragi
46% · 106 games50% · 8 games
Visage33
Visage
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorTaiga
63% · 64 games45% · 95 games
DoomSaksa
Doom
Io
IoCeb
64% · 135 games47% · 227 games
GrimstrokeSneyking
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct16:43
OG 42%Tundra Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 31:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
UnderlordATF
41% · 48 games58% · 170 games
Wraith KingSkiter
Wraith King
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetYuragi
46% · 42 games55% · 10 games
Visage33
Visage
Tiny
Tinybzm
46% · 196 games46% · 223 games
PangolierNine
Pangolier
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeTaiga
46% · 220 games57% · 92 games
PugnaSaksa
Pugna
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCeb
52% · 100 games54% · 111 games
PhoenixSneyking
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 61%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2