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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Yuragi · 9 games
67%
Io
Iosignature
Ceb · 9 games
78%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Ari · 9 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 8 games
100%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 7 games
71%
Puck
Pucksignature
bzm · 6 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Yuragi · 6 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Ceb · 6 games
100%

Tundra Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Topson · 11 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Sneyking · 10 games
70%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 9 games
67%
Sven
Svensignature
Skiter · 9 games
78%
Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 9 games
89%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Topson · 8 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Topson · 8 games
88%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Whitemon · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
333 picks · 497 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
288 picks · 427 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
279 picks · 241 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
270 picks · 188 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
262 picks · 452 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
251 picks · 351 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
250 picks · 728 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
248 picks · 395 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 64%
Hero pool strength54% OG
Head-to-head3 – 6
Model total51% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:17
OG 49%Tundra Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by OG in 42:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYuragi
57% · 195 games50% · 110 games
SvenPure~
Sven
Primal Beast
Primal Beastbzm
52% · 234 games56% · 330 games
PangolierTopson
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerWisper
45% · 147 games48% · 195 games
MagnusMinD_ContRoL
Magnus
Windranger
WindrangerCeb
47% · 225 games44% · 112 games
Muerta9Class
Muerta
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAri
47% · 152 games54% · 206 games
TechiesWhitemon
Techies
Game 2prediction missed39:8
OG 49%Tundra Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by OG in 37:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYuragi
51% · 94 games57% · 209 games
Templar AssassinPure~
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
50% · 253 games52% · 371 game
PangolierTopson
Pangolier
Chen
ChenCeb
59% · 110 games51% · 189 games
MagnusMinD_ContRoL
Magnus
Tidehunter
TidehunterWisper
47% · 167 games48% · 198 games
PhoenixWhitemon
Phoenix
Rubick
RubickAri
46% · 508 games39% · 165 games
Hoodwink9Class
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 51%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2