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PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 20 games
80%
Puck
Puckoften banned
bzm · 19 games
58%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 17 games
65%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 16 games
81%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Taiga · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 14 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 14 games
79%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 13 games
46%

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tinysignature
yamich · 17 games
65%
Marci
Marcisignature
yamich · 15 games
80%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
DM · 14 games
64%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
yamich · 14 games
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gpK~ · 14 games
79%
Bane
Banesignature
Xakoda · 13 games
77%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 13 games
85%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Xakoda · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
694 picks · 498 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
492 picks · 991 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
401 picks · 510 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
390 picks · 195 bans
51%
Marci
Marci
365 picks · 678 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
332 picks · 545 bans
48%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
319 picks · 294 bans
55%
Monkey King
Monkey King
306 picks · 635 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:31
OG 56%Virtus.pro 44%
The model gave 56% on OG — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 42:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuragi
50% · 167 games58% · 66 games
Nature's ProphetRAMZES666
Nature's Prophet
Viper
ViperATF
51% · 138 games46% · 186 games
PuckgpK~
Puck
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerbzm
56% · 123 games53% · 83 games
DoomDM
Doom
Earthshaker
EarthshakerCeb
52% · 75 games36% · 73 games
Phoenixyamich
Phoenix
Chen
ChenTaiga
60% · 61 game43% · 156 games
SnapfireXakoda
Snapfire
Game 2prediction missed10:19
OG 53%Virtus.pro 47%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 23:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightYuragi
48% · 124 games51% · 228 games
Templar AssassinRAMZES666
Templar Assassin
Slardar
SlardarATF
50% · 38 games48% · 255 games
Death ProphetgpK~
Death Prophet
Tiny
Tinybzm
51% · 363 games58% · 70 games
LycanDM
Lycan
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanTaiga
47% · 99 games49% · 111 games
DisruptorXakoda
Disruptor
Io
IoCeb
46% · 190 games55% · 150 games
Marciyamich
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 60%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2