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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 34 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 19 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Chuvash · 17 games
53%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Taiga · 17 games
65%
Doom
Doomoften banned
DM · 16 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Taiga · 16 games
56%
Venomancer
Venomancersignature
DM · 16 games
75%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Taiga · 15 games
53%

Xtreme Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 19 games
53%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Dy · 18 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 15 games
47%
Rubick
Rubick
Kaka · 15 games
47%
Doom
Doomsignature
JT- · 14 games
71%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ghost · 12 games
83%
Lion
Lion
Kaka · 12 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
JT- · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
639 picks · 691 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
492 picks · 322 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
449 picks · 986 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 856 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
400 picks · 937 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
392 picks · 353 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
379 picks · 1011 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
379 picks · 450 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:32
OG 56%Xtreme Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on OG — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 38:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
51% · 456 games40% · 111 games
Drow RangerGhost
Drow Ranger
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerYuragi
42% · 80 games56% · 298 games
BeastmasterJT-
Beastmaster
Venomancer
VenomancerDM
51% · 81 game49% · 121 game
Dragon KnightPaparazi
Dragon Knight
Enigma
EnigmaTaiga
52% · 254 games51% · 255 games
MiranaXinQ
Mirana
Monkey King
Monkey KingCeb
53% · 253 games48% · 339 games
UndyingDy
Undying
Game 2prediction missed12:27
OG 54%Xtreme Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on OG — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 37:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautYuragi
47% · 77 games45% · 97 games
MarsJT-
Mars
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
52% · 251 game47% · 262 games
PangolierPaparazi
Pangolier
Enigma
EnigmaCeb
52% · 282 games50% · 99 games
SlarkGhost
Slark
Tidehunter
TidehunterDM
51% · 152 games48% · 400 games
RubickXinQ
Rubick
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonTaiga
54% · 138 games57% · 42 games
Elder TitanDy
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 60%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2