?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Ari · 25 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 24 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kaori · 20 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Wisper · 16 games
63%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 16 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 15 games
73%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 14 games
57%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nine · 14 games
57%

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
DaaD- · 19 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 18 games
39%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 15 games
53%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 15 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 14 games
36%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Nefrit · 13 games
62%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 12 games
42%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
LeBronDota · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
428 picks · 349 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
407 picks · 540 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
360 picks · 190 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
358 picks · 452 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
353 picks · 375 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 580 bans
46%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
338 picks · 544 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
335 picks · 362 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:38
OG 57%Zero Tenacity 43%
The model gave 57% on OG — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 44:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassin23savage
52% · 168 games46% · 154 games
MedusaDaaD-
Medusa
Magnus
MagnusCeb
53% · 205 games49% · 238 games
InvokerStojkov
Invoker
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNine
55% · 210 games49% · 259 games
Primal BeastNefrit
Primal Beast
Batrider
BatriderAri
54% · 363 games48% · 232 games
MuertaPablo
Muerta
Phoenix
PhoenixxNova
43% · 299 games51% · 362 games
ClockwerkLeBronDota
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed15:29
OG 55%Zero Tenacity 45%
The model gave 55% on OG — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 35:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursa23savage
54% · 62 games45% · 136 games
LinaStojkov
Lina
Monkey King
Monkey KingNine
57% · 98 games49% · 94 games
LifestealerDaaD-
Lifestealer
Magnus
MagnusCeb
46% · 126 games46% · 50 games
Night StalkerNefrit
Night Stalker
Rubick
RubickAri
53% · 182 games51% · 130 games
PugnaLeBronDota
Pugna
Lich
LichxNova
43% · 52 games53% · 110 games
Nyx AssassinPablo
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 62%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2